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South China Sea | |||||||||||||
| Naval and Air Modernization | ||||||||||||||
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| Conclusion | ||||||||||||||
| Though there is a widespread attempt to modernize the militaries of countries bordering the South China Sea, there does not seem to be indications of a region-wide arms race, defined as a 'competitive building up of armaments by actors in a potential conflict that proceeds in an action-reaction pattern' due to relatively stable military expenditures as a percentage of GDP. The large absolute increase in military expenditure, especially in China's case, is a byproduct of its increase in absolute GDP. There is, however, indication that an arms race may occur in the near future, not on the acquisition of more arms, but on the acquisitions of specific weapons and counter-weapons. There is indication towards the acquisition of submarines and ASW equipment, especially on the part of China, Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore. A focus on the acquisition of an air force that is capable of adequately defending claimed territory is also seen, as indicated by the recent acquisitions of 4th generation multi-role attack aircraft by nearly all countries in the region and the focus of acquisition of AEW&C aircraft and aerial refuelling tankers by China, Taiwan, and Singapore. In context, however, none of the countries bordering the South China Sea remotely approaches the United States in military capability, allowing the US to remain a key out-of-theatre actor in the region. | ||||||||||||||
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