The recent outbreak of fires in Indonesia 28 March
2000
Rona Dennis (CIFOR) with input from Grahame
Applegate (CIFOR), Anne Casson (CIFOR), Tom
Tomich
(ICRAF) and Fred Stolle (ICRAF)
|
The
headline "Forest fires declared a national disaster" recently
re-appeared in the newspapers. The last time this phrase
graced the headlines was 1997/98 when Indonesia experienced
the worst vegetation fires in recent history. This was no
minor event; it is estimated that 9.7 million hectares burned
(including primary forest, logged-over forest, secondary
forest, plantations, small holder agriculture and scrub), with
some 75 million people affected by smoke, haze, and the fires
themselves. The economic costs were estimated to be between
US$ 4.5 billion and US$10 billion .
From mid-February to the 4th week of March 2000, a dry
spell persisted in parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan. In the
first week of March up to 1200 fire hotspots were recorded in
Sumatra and Kalimantan, mainly in the provinces of Riau and
West Kalimantan. On 5 March 2000, the daily peak in Riau
reached 781 hotspots according to the Meteorological Service
Singapore (MSS)
http://www.gov.sg/metsin/hazed.html,
Figure 1 shows a specially enhanced satellite image
highlighting fire hotspots and smoke. In West Kalimantan a
peak of 708 hotspots was recorded on 7 March 2000.
The
effects of the fires were not only felt locally in Indonesia.
In March this year, smoke-haze reached Singapore and caused an
increase in the Pollution Standard Index (PSI) but not on the
scale of 1997. On 8 March 2000, the PSI reached 65, the most
polluted this year, by comparison, the peak reached 138 in
September 1997. An air-quality rating of 0-50 is considered
good, 51-100 moderate and 101-200 is unhealthy. In early March
this year, much closer to the source of the fires, people in
the coastal areas of Riau and the capital Pekanbaru as well as
in and around Pontianak (West Kalimantan) suffered from the
effects of smoke and masks were handed out by the local
government. Smoke also adversely affected scheduled flights to
Pekanbaru, Jambi and Pontianak.
|
(Figure 1 Fire hotspots and smoke haze, Riau
Province, 5 March 2000)
|
Most reports in the media place the blame firmly on
large-scale land clearing operations carried out by plantation
companies. There seems to be strong evidence from ground
evidence and satellite imagery that this is indeed the case.
Satellite imagery and fire hot spot data derived from imagery
have played a crucial role in the past few years in
pinpointing the fire sources. Using such high technology in
addition to ground observations the Government of Indonesia
(GOI) is in a good position to identify companies using fire
to clear land and has shown its commitment to make these
companies accountable for fires on their land. On 15 March
2000 it was reported that the GOI had set up a forest fire
enforcement team consisting of representatives from the
police, Attorney General's Office and the Environmental Impact
Management Agency. In Riau, four oil palm plantation companies
were recently named as using fire to clear land despite
zero-burning laws .
To date, the fires this year have
been worst in Riau. In fact, a recent report by the EU Forest
Fire Prevention and Control Project (FFPCP) in South Sumatra
(http://www.mdp.co.id/ffpcp/riauhaze.htm)
explains that Riau has consistently shown the largest number
of fires in any of the Sumatran provinces in 1996, 1998 and
1999. In 1999 fire peaks in Riau coincided with drier periods
in April (1386 hotspots) and June -September (5616 hotspots).
FFPCP also confirms that the major fire zones are in areas of
large-scale oil palm developments. Other fire zones are found
in peat swamp forest areas and associated with logged-over
timber concessions being converted to
plantations.
There is obvious concern, based on the
current situation, that this year could be as bad as 1997/98.
Climate predictions help assess the potential for severe
drought and fires. The climatic phenomenon known as the El
Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exacerbated the fire
situation in 1997/98. The ENSO leads to drought, which
increases the risk of fires, and also conditions that are not
conducive to the dispersion of smoke in the upper atmosphere.
It is very unlikely that fires will reach a similar scale this
year. The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the USA issues no
warning of an El Nino this year http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/,.
In fact, Indonesia is experiencing the highest positive values
of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) since records began in
1958. Negative SOIs give rise to El Nino conditions. In the
CPC advisory a slow build-up of El Niņo conditions is now
reported however this phase of the ENSO cycle has historically
lasted between one and two years before the subsequent
development of warm ENSO conditions.
Despite normal
weather conditions predicted for this year, there is a strong
chance fire and smoke will be a significant feature of the dry
season this year and many years to come. Evidence from July
and August 1999 showed that even in a normal dry season the
fires and smoke now seem to be worse than in the early 1990s.
Fire has always been a feature of the dry season in Indonesia
as farmers have cleared land for cultivation, but in the past
decade there has been a significant increase in large-scale
land clearing activities using fire carried out by plantation
companies. The Ministry of Forestry and Estate Crops reports
that since 1982, 4.1 million hectares of 'forest land' have
been converted to plantations. Most, if not all, plantations
established since 1982 have gone into areas designated as
'forest land'. Oil palm development has been rapidly expanding
since around 1991. It therefore follows that forest conversion
has also been on the increase since the early 1990's. There
has been a slow down though since 1998 when the economic
crisis hit Indonesia. However, Riau does not seem to have
experienced this slow down. In Riau, oil palm estates are
estimated to cover between one and two million hectares out of
five million hectares designated as Conversion Forest. This
potentially means that areas designated for future oil palm
developments may be at a higher risk from fires. Riau, Jambi,
West, East and Central Kalimantan all have large areas
proposed for plantation development.
Map of
Indonesia
|
Map of
Sumatra
 |
Map of Kalimantan
 |
Since the early 1980's the international
community has directed much effort towards helping Indonesia
solve the fire problem. However, a review carried out by CIFOR
in 1998 identified that there were still gaps in knowledge
regarding causes and impacts of fires. In order to fill this
gap, CIFOR and ICRAF, with funding from the European Union and
the United States Forest Service, is carrying out a
comprehensive assessment of fire on an island wide scale for
Sumatra and Kalimantan with in-depth research. The research
focuses on the underlying social and economic causes and
impacts of the fires in eight detailed study sites, see Figure
3. The central methodology integrates social science with
remote sensing and GIS to provide a powerful analytical tool.
Initial results are promising. CIFOR/ICRAF have
confirmed that the problem is indeed complex with a range of
causes from small scale agricultural fires that go out of
control, large-scale land clearing fires deliberately started
by plantation companies to fires resulting from conflicts
between land users. Predominant causes also vary from province
to province. The research shows that the relationship between
land users is crucial in understanding the problem of fire,
which can be used as either a tool or a weapon in depending on
the circumstance. The research also shows that there is a
strong link between land use policies and the incidence of
large fires. The integration of the site-specific studies with
the island-wide assessments will provide a solid base for the
government-oriented policy analysis and recommendations that
will be the ultimate output from this research. This is
particularly pertinent with the push in Indonesia towards
devolved forms of power to provincial and district
authorities. The recent fire situation in Riau and West
Kalimantan reinforces the importance of this
research.
| |