The big change of the last two decades in the geographical patterns of Asian trade has been the increase in the level of Asia's trade with itself.

Intraregional exports grew in value from US$150 billion in 1985 to about US$475 million in 1993. Whereas in 1985, intraregional exports represented 37 percent of total exports from Asia to the world, by 1993 this had risen to 45 percent. Moreover, the role that intra-Asian FDI has played in stimulating this increase, combined with the higher propensity of foreign-owned firms to export and the growing importance of intra-firm trade will continue to ensure that trade of Asian countries with each will be the strongest component of Asian trade growth for the foreseeable future.

Demand for Maritime Transport

Conventionally, the demand for maritime transport is divided into three major components: dry bulk, liquid bulk and general cargo. The dry bulk sector, formally defined as "dry cargo shipped in loose condition and of a homogeneous nature," comprises a wide range of goods, dominated by a few major commodities: we will deal explicitly with iron ore, coal and grain.⁸ Liquid bulkessentially those cargoes which travel in tankersis dominated by crude oil and petroleum products. The general cargo covers the rest of maritime trade, increasingly dominated by containers but including also the so-called neo-bulks (steel, timber, cars) as well as a miscellany of cargoes, largely in trades to LDC's, that continue to travel in non-containerised form.

Dry Bulk Cargoes

Iron Ore

As iron ore and coal are the two largest volume traffics in the dry bulk sector, the steel industry is a key factor in the dry bulk market. In the early 1990's the already modest growth in the carriage of coking coal and iron ore was hit badly by a downturn in Japanese steel production. The adoption of new technologies in steel-making has also tended to reduce the demand for these primary inputs. Until recently, most analysts have therefore been fairly pessimistic about the future prospects for these two key commodities.⁹

There are recent signs that growth may be stronger than had been anticipated. The OECD reports that, during 1995, largely because of a large increase in steel production in the Republic of Korea and a recovery in Japan, iron ore shipments increased by 4.4 percent, while coking coal volumes increase by a similar percentage.¹⁰ More recent forecasts now suggest that world economic growth during this period will provide the basis for fairly buoyant global demand for this sector through the end of the decade.

Asia's share in this global total is large and expected to rise slightly. A modest recovery in demand from Japan should be complemented by continued strong growth in demand from Korea, with strong growth also from China. One recent forecast suggests that total Asian imports of iron ore may increase from 154 million tonnes (49.4 percent of the world total) to 189 million tonnes (51.2 percent) by 2001.¹¹

This demand is now primarily met by exports from Australia. Australian exports now provide nearly 60 percentof Asian demand for iron ore, and this percentage is likely, if anything, to edge up over the remainder of the decade. The other major supplier to Asian markets is Brazil, with a little more than 25 percent of the Japanese market and around 16 percent of the Korea market.¹² A smaller and fairly stable percentage of East Asia's iron ore needs is met from India.

Coal

While seaborne movements of coking coal have been depressed by slack conditions in the steel industry, demand for steaming coal has been supported by the energy demands of the newly industrialized economies of Asia, much of which has been met by the construction of coal-fired generating plants. The decline in European coal production has also offered new market opportunities for major coal producers.

OECD reports strong growth in steaming coal shipments during 1995, with volumes rising 7 percent from 219 million to 236 million tonnes. Much of this growth is attributed to "strong growth in the shorthaul inter-Asian trades."¹³ Drewry forecast similar rates of growth for seaborne trade in steaming coal for the rest of the decade. Despite the continued rapid growth in energy demand in East Asia over this period, this forecast may be a little optimistic. WSTS estimates overall growth in coal shipments (steaming plus coking coal) to rise at around 4.8 percent per annum for the rest of the decade. A substantial part of this increase will come from the Far Eastern Newly Industrialized Economies (FENIE's), in which demand is expected to grow at 8 percent per year, while demand from Japan should rise at around 3.8 percent.

Australia is the principal supplier of coal to most East Asian markets, providing an estimated 60 percent of Japan's requirements in 1996, a similar percentage of Taiwan's requirements and a somewhat smaller share of Korean imports. Both the US and Canada are also important suppliers, shipping 16 and 25 million tonnes respectively in 1996 (compared to Australia's 100 million tonnes).

However, these traditional suppliers are coming under increasing pressure from exports from China, particularly in the steaming coal sector. From 5 million tonnes in 1980, exports of coal from China increased to approximately 20 million in 1991, and an estimated 33 million in 1996. A further increase of about 60 percent is expected by the end of the decade. An estimated 75 percent of this volume is imported by other Asian economies, principally Japan and Korea: if this continues, China will supply between 15 percent and 20 percent of Asia's coal import needs by 2001.¹⁴ Indonesia is also emerging as a second major Asian coal exporter.

Grain

Seaborne grain trade enjoyed a very slow start to the 1990's, with no significant growth recorded between 1990 to 1995. After a sharp rise in volumes in 1996, the expectation is for moderate to strong growth for the rest of the decade, with an increase in the order of 20 to 30 million tonnes (around 11 percent-16 percent of current world trade) by 2001.

There is considerable difference between sources on the geographical distribution of likely growth. While the International Wheat Council expects expansion to be "concentrated in Asia and Africa," WSTS estimates place most of the growth in the Middle East and Latin America.¹⁵

At the present time grain imports to Asia stand at around 75 million tonnes per year, of which Japan accounts for a little under 40 percent. Approximately 30 percent is accounted for by the East Asian FENIE's, while China's imports account for more than 20 percent. The US is the dominant supplier, with 75 percent of the total Asian market. This dominance is clear in each subsector except China, in which Canada holds about one-third of the market (Canada has approximately 12 percent of the total Asian grain market).

Very little structural change is expected in this market over the next few years. The most probable outcome is a modest volume increase (about 10 percent), with a small decline in Japan's share of the total import market.

The most volatile segment of the market is probably imports to China. China is a significant grain producer, and much of that country's current import volume reflect regional supply/demand imbalances within the country and under-developed inland transport systems. China exports substantial volumes of coarse grains from its northern ports to other Asian countries. There is a possibility that increased internal production and improved transportation within China will substantially reduce its import volumes.

Liquid Bulk Cargoes

The oil price shocks of the 1970's did serious and lasting damage to the world's seaborne carriage of crude oil and oil products. It was not until 1993 that total volumes recovered to the levels of 1980. Subsequent growth has been sluggish, and is expected to remain so for the rest of the decade, with growth rates in the order of 1.5 percent per annum.¹⁶

However, growth in Asian crude imports has been rising, and is likely to continue to rise, at a higher rate. This is because widespread investment in new refinery capacity, particularly in Thailand, South Korea and Taiwan, is leading to the replacement of previous importation of refined product by the imports of refinery feedstock.

A partial offset may come from an increase in the importation of petroleum products by Japan. SS&Y Research Services reports that it expects the relaxation of restrictions that prevent non-oil refiners from importing products into Japan during 1996 will lead to a reduction in crude imports and an increase in imports of refined product.¹⁷ If this eventuates, it is highly likely that the additional product will be sourced from the new refineries within Asia.

Drewry Shipping consultants has estimated that the Asian imports of crude oil will increase to nearly 500 million tonnes per year by 2000.¹⁸ Of this, approximately one-half will be destined for Japan: the remainder will be distributed amongst a wide range of Southeast and East Asian nations. This implies that crude oil imports to East Asia, including Japan, will increase at approximately twice the rate than the world as a whole.

Despite China's substantial reserves of crude oil, the expansion of domestic demand makes it unlikely that it will be a major supplier of crude to the region. Exports of crude oil from China, which were reported at 36 million tonnes in 1989, had fallen by 1995 to 19 million tonnes, only marginally in excess of China's imports of 17 million tonnes.¹⁹ The overwhelming majority of Asia's imports will continue to be sourced from the Middle East, as they are at present.

The prospect for petroleum product trade is somewhat different. Increased refining capacity within Asia will reduce the need for imports of product from the Middle East. Indeed, most commentators expect a persistent excess of refinery capacity to lead to intense competition to supply an increasing share of Asian product needs from refineries elsewhere in Asia. Asian refineries already supply approximately 50 percent of Japan's import requirements.

Total product imports to East Asia currently amount to around 112 million tonnes per year, of which Japan's share is around 46 million. It is unlikely that we will see a significant increase in this total in the next five years.

Containers

We have grown so accustomed to the rapid economic development of Asia that it is easy to lose sight of just how severe the physical challenge of coping with growth has been. There is no better way to remind ourselves than to examine the increase in the volume of containers handled at Asian ports over the last decade:

• in 1985, the total number of containers handled through the ports of East Asia was 12.7 million TEU.²⁰ In 1996, two individual portsHong Kong and Singaporeeach handled volumes in excess of this figure.

• the total volume of containers in East Asia ports increased by 270 percent from 1985 to 1995.

• in 1985, East Asian ports handled approximately 40 percent more cargo than the ports of the United States, the world's largest container market. By 1995, East Asian ports handled over three times the total cargo handled in the USA.

Table 2 shows the growth that has occurred in containers handled within each of the major Asian economies during this period. It also shows some preliminary forecastsbased on work in progress on a current ESCAP/Korea Maritime Institute projectof anticipated volumes for 2000. By that time, East Asian ports will handle around 47 percent of total world container throughput: by the year 2005, this will probably reach 50 percent.

Table 2: Container Movements in East Asia History and Forecasts (000 TEU)

Economy	1985	1990	1995	2000
Japan	5,517	7,851	10,740	13,500
Taiwan Province of China	3,075	5,430	7,848	12,000
Hong Kong	2,289	5,100	12,549	16,000
Singapore	1,699	5,223	11,800	17,500
South Korea	1,246	2,348	4,502	7,400
Philippines	638	1,383	1,707	2,900
PRC	446	1,143	4,678	10,900
Thailand	400	1,078	1,962	4,000
Malaysia	389	882	2,086	4,600
Indonesia	229	922	2,197	5,300
EAST ASIA TOTAL	15,928	31,360	60,100	94,100

Source: Historical data from Containerisation International Yearbook 1997. Singapore figure for 1995 revised in accordance with data in Containerisation International, March 1997, p 34. Forecasts are preliminary estimates from current ESCAP/KMI research project on intra-Asian shipping.

Within this massive overall growth, there are several major structural changes. As the four successive waves of Asian economic development have occurred, the centre of gravity of container shipping operations has changed. In the 1970's, Asia's container trades were Japan's container trades, and the trans-Pacific trade was in effect a bilateral trade between the USA and Japan.

By 1985, this had changed dramatically. The diversification of Asian container trade was already entering its mature phase. Container volumes from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea comprised more than 40 percent of Asia's total, while Japan's share had shrunk to 31 percent. Container volumes from the ASEAN countries were still modest, but Singapore had began to emerge as a major global hub: with total throughput of 1.7 million TEU, it was the sixth largest container port in the world (two places behind New York/New Jersey).

By 1995, another profound change had occurred. During the decade 1985-1995, container volumes through the ports of ASEAN countries increased six-fold, so that by the end of the decade they collectively handled almost one-third of the Asian total. The other three tiger economies continued to grow strongly, maintaining their share at more than 40 percent. Japan ports now handled less than one-fifth of all Asian container.

And something else was happening. The volume of containers handled by ports on the mainland of China began to surge, increasing four-fold between 1990 and 1995. Information for 1996 is still rather sketchy, but Containerisation International magazine reports that the throughput of Shanghaiwhich accounts for approximately one-third of the total containers handled on the Chinese mainlandincreased by 26.4 percent last year. It is unlikely that the ports of the Pearl River delta grew more slowly than this, and it seems reasonable to estimate that overall container volumes grew by around 25 percent. By the end of the decade, the ports of mainland China will handle more than 10 percent of the Asian total.

The other major transformation that has occurred is the growth importance of container trades within Asia itself. The intra-Asian container trade has consistently registered growth rates in excess of 10 percent per annum for more than a decade, reaching almost double that figure, and is now recognised as the second-largest container trade in the worldsecond only to the trans-Pacific trade. The massive investment of Japan and the newly industrialised economies of Asia in China, and the explosive growth of the container trade of that country, as well as the increasing integration of the Southeast and Northeast Asian economies suggests that there is not likely to be any abatement in this growth in the foreseeable future.

Table 3 shows the scale of container flows within Asia. For the sake of comparison, container flows between the major Asian sub-regions and North America have also been included. The table also shows estimated container flows in the year 2001. It can be seen that the intra-Asian trade, which is now around 80 percent of the trade between Asia and North America, will be approximately equal to that trade at the beginning of the next decade.

Table 3: Estimated Intra-Asian and Trans-Pacific Container Flows1996 and 2000 (000 TEU)

1996	Japan	FENIE*	SE Asia	China	USA	Canada
Japan	0	825	625	218	833	60
FENIE*	417	926	596	715	912	60
SE Asia	413	606	n.a.	n.a.	751	41
China	590	821	n.a.	n.a.	1,486	63
US	1,143	1,640	667	293	0	18
Canada	229	150	64	56	42	0
2000	Japan	FENIE*	SE Asia	China	USA	Canada
Japan	-	1,263	976	314	967	75
FENIE*	637	1,633	1,044	1,507	1,074	82
SE Asia	606	1,115	n.a.	n.a.	1,123	60
China	967	1,030	n.a.	n.a.	1,703	97
US	1,463	2,576	987	440	-	22
Canada	309	226	86	74	59	-

Source: Derived form WSTS.

* Far East newly industrialised economies: Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Supply Side Developments

The Rise of Asian Ship Ownership

While there have been major changes in the scale and pattern of Asian demand for maritime transport, there have also been a number of changes occurring on the supply side.

The most striking of these has been the increasing Asian participation in ownership of the world shipping fleet. Over the last two decades, Korea, China, Singapore, and Taiwan have joined Japan and Hong Kong as major ship owning nations. Table 4 indicates that, between them, these six economies now control approximately 30 percent of the total world shipping tonnage. (ships beneficially owned but operated under an open registry flag are included in the totals for each economy).

Table 4: Leading Asian Shipowning Economies

	Tonnage (dwt)	Share
Japan	86,770	12.93%
China	35,246	5.25%
Hong Kong	31,331	4.67%
Korea	20,930	3.12%
Taiwan	14,370	2.14%
Singapore	12,998	1.94%
Combined	201,645	30.05%
World Total	671,184	100.00%

Source: OECD, Review of Maritime Transport.

Some indication of how things are likely to move over the next few years can be gleaned from the fact that, according to UNCTAD, the developing countries of Asia, which in 1995 controlled approximately 17 percent of the world fleet, took delivery of 27 percent of the total new tonnage delivered.

Asian Liner Operators

The increasing strength of the Asian shipowning sector is nowhere more clear than in the container shipping sector. Of the 20 largest container shipping lines in the world, fully half are owned and based in Asia: 3 in Japan, 2 in Taiwan, 2 in Korea, and one each in Hong Kong, China, and Singapore (Table 5).

Table 5: Leading Asian Container Lines, 1996

		Total TEU
Company	Ranking	Capacity	No. Ships
Evergreen/Uniglory	1	204,061	103
Cosco	4	163,650	149
NYK/TSK Line	5	127,400	76
Mitsui OSK Line	6	121,085	71
Hanjim Shipping	7	111,900	45
Hyundai Merchant Marine	9	101,992	32
K-Line	13	82,331	47
Yangming Marine Transport	14	80,058	33
OOCL	15	76,514	28
Neptune Orient Line/PUL	19	57,379	35

Source: Containerisation International.

In addition, the strength of intra-Asian container trade growth and the maritime aspirations of countries such as Malaysia have served to ensure that the "second tier" of Asia operators is exceptionally strong, with companies such as MISC, Wan Hai, RCL, Kien Hung and PIL adding considerable depths to the ranks of container shipping lines based in the region.

Once again, there is every likelihood that Asian carriers' presence in the container shipping market will consolidate and continue to increase. The expected strength of Asian trade growth will provide the opportunity, and there are clear signs that the major Asian carriers have no intention of neglecting it: the top 10 Asian carriers listed in Table 5 are responsible for greater than 25 percent of known worldwide orders for new container vessels.

Global Alliances

1996 saw a radical restructuring of corporate alignments in the liner shipping sector, and long-standing consortia and operating agreements were abandoned in favour of new "global alliances."

While cooperative arrangements have long been a feature of liner shipping, they have traditionally been arranged on a "trade land by trade line" basis. A line would work with one set of partners in the trade between Europe and Asia, and another in the trade between Asia and North America. The significance of the new alliances lies both in their scope and their scale: they are larger than anything before, and they have the avowed intention of allowing the alliance partners to establish a global service network.

There are three principal alliances:

1. Global Alliance: APL, MOL, OOCL, Nedlloyd (and MISC)

2. Grand Alliance: P&O, Hapag-Lloyd, NOL and NYK

3. Sea-Land/Maersk

Hanjin Shipping has also formed a close co-operation with the Tricon partners, which is sometimes listed as a fourth global alliance, but the scale and port coverage of this grouping falls short of the other three.

There is much debate about the extent to which these alliances will dominate the global liner business and about their stability. With respect to the first of these, the main challenge to their dominance appears to be the major independent carriers of Asia: lines such as Evergreen, Cosco, Hyundai and Yangming. With regard to the second, a major threat has already emerged in the form of the merger between P&O and Nedlloyd, two companies which are members of rival alliances.

Changes in Service Patterns

In the liner shipping sector, the successive waves of Asian economic development have brought with them significant changes in the geographical structure of line services in the intercontinental trades to and from Asia. Briefly tracing the history of the trade between Asia and North America:

1. In the earliest phase, container shipping services concentrated largely on providing quality services between Japan and both the East and West Coasts of the United States, with East coast services transiting the Panama canal;

2. As economic activity in Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan grew, an increasing number of lines began providing direct shipping services to these locations. Initially this was done in conjunction with a service to Japan, and this is still the pattern in the case of services to Korea. Recently, many operators introduced additional dedicated service to the Southern ports of East Asia. Towards the end of this phase, the spread of intermodal services in the US led to a decline in service transiting the Panama Canal in favor of landbridging from West coast ports to the Midwest and even to East Coast destinations.

3. As economic development of Southeast Asia took off in the second half of the 1980's, major consortia began to introduce services that extended westwards to Singapore, transhipping cargoes from other Southeast destinations through that port.

4. With further growth in Southeast Asia, a new strategy for serving the East Coast of the USA was introduced, with vessels proceeding from Asia via the Suez Canal. This proves an attractive option for cargoes from Taiwan and Hong Kong as well as from Southeast Asia. Lines also begin to experiment with additional calls at Southeast Asian ports: Port Klang in Malaysia, Laem Chabang in Thailand.

5. With the rapid growth in Chinese cargoes, improved handling facilities at mainland China ports and congestion in Hong Kong because of delays in the construction of Terminal 9, major lines begin to experiment with direct calls at mainline ports, collecting cargoes previously transhipped through Hong Kong or Japanese ports.

Phase 6, yet to commence, will see:

• a further buildup of direct calls to ports in southern and mid-China
• competition from Kaohsiung for cargoes previously transhipped through Hong Kong and Japanese ports as political obstacles to shipping links are removed;
• the inclusion of direct calls at the Philippines on trans-Pacific routes; and
• (possibly) the introduction of services dedicated exclusively to serving the ASEAN countries.

Increases in Vessel Scale

The massive growth in container traffic, changes in route patterns, and the never-ending search for economies of scale in container ship operations led APL in 1986 to place orders for the first "post-Panamax" containerships.²¹

It was several years before any other company followed suit, but in 1989 the French national carrier CGM ordered a single vessel, to be followed one month later by Malaysian carrier MISC. From then on, the trickle became a flood: by mid-1996, there were 45 post-Panamax vessels in service. At the same time unfilled orders for post-Panamax vessels comprised more than 20 percent of the total container ship capacity on order, and nearly one-half of the capacity for large vessels.²²

From the point of view of the present paper, the most significant point is that all of these new large vessels will be deployed to and from Asia: either on the trans-Pacific, and on services between Northern Europe and Asia. This will place enormous demands on Asian portsthese ships are longer, deeper and considerably broader than the Panamax vessels that they will replace. Moreover, the vast increases in carrying capacity will require an extremely high standard of terminal performance if the economies of scale are not to be undermined by excessive time spent in port.

Port Investment

Catering for the vast increase in Asian international trades requires not only a major increase in shipping capacity, but also the vast quantity of fixed investment in port facilities. In 1994, ESCAP estimated that meeting the needs of Asia's maritime trades would require an investment of around $25.5 billion dollars between 1994 and 2000. However, the forecasts on the basis of which this estimate was made now appear to be conservative; ESCAP notes that the methodology used "results in a significant underestimation of the investment requirements."²³ Total port investment requirements may well be in excess of $10 billion per year.

Partly in response to this need and partly as a result of a broader policy shift towards market solution, there has been a significant liberalization of port policy in most Asian jurisdictions, with a proliferation of BOO and BOOT schemes and other strategies for encouraging private investment in and operation of port facilities. An associated development has been the emergence of international port companies: P & O Ports (Australia), Hutchison International Terminals (Hong Kong) and International Container Services Inc (Philippines) have all adopted aggressive expansion plans that extend far beyond their country of origin. The Port of Singapore has also signaled its intention to internationalize, and has made this intention concrete in a major venture in China.²⁴

Conclusion

In this paper, I have attempted to introduce a few of the major developments that have taken place in the Asian seaborne trade, and to take a preliminary look at likely future developments. There is much that is uncertain about how the maritime sector will develop in the future, but there are a few things about which we can be confident:

• the Asian economy will continue to grow more quickly than the world economy for the foreseeable future;
• this growth will be driven by trade, and in particular by trade in manufactures, giving rise to a more than proportionate growth in seaborne trade, especially containerized trades;
• the massive volume of FDI by Asian investors in Asia, and the rising volumes of intra-component trade, will drive increasing integration of the Asian economy, and continued rapid growth in intra-Asian trade;
• this will complement, rather than replace, trade between Asia and Europe/North America;
• catering for these two intercontinental trades will forge the strategies of all the world's major shipping lines in the coming decades;
• these strategies will require major lines to take a truly global approach to service development, encourage the formation of international alliances in pursuit of scale economies and the ability to provide a "one stop shop" for global customers;
• rising unit values of cargoes in these trades will continue the pressure for the development of high quality integrated logistics services, reliability in sailing schedules, and route innovations that minimize door to door transit times for all market segments;
• this will cause lines to make increasing demands on the quality of port services and intermodal connections to all ports on their service networks;
• meeting this demand will require vast capital investment, greater responsiveness, the rapid upgrading of technology and the adoption of best practice operating techniques in a wide range of Asian ports; and
• this will reinforce the present trend to more liberal port policies and the development of an internationalized port industry in Asia.

Endnotes

1. The somewhat anachronistic UN ESCAP definition of the developing economies of Asia includes all Asian nations other than Japan.
2. United Nations ESCAP, Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (United Nations:Y, 1996.
3. UN ESCAP, Review and Analysis of Intraregional Trade Flows in Asia and the Pacific (United Nations: New York, 1995), 32.
4. Peter Drysdale, International Economic Pluralism: Economic Policy in East Asia and the Pacific (Allen & Unwin: Sydney, 1988), p 152.
5. UN ESCAP, Review and Analysis of Intraregional Trade Flows in Asia and the Pacific (United Nations: New York, 1995). The economies included are Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan Province of China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and China.
6. SITC classifications 5 to 8 inclusive.
7. Review and Analysis of Intraregional Trade Flows in Asia and the Pacific, 33.
8. Eric Sullivan, The Marine Encyclopedia Dictionary (Lloyd's of London Press: London, 1988).
9. Drewry shipping consultants forecase a 1.5% fall in iron ore shipments between 1996 and 2000 (385 million tonnes to 380 million tonnes) and a rise of only 7% in coking coal shipments over the same period. Drewry Shipping Consultants, Bulk Carrier Market: Prospects for Recovery 1993-2000 (Drewry: London, 1993).
10. UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport 1995 (UN: New York, 1995), p 3.
11. DRI/McGraw-Hill/Mercer, World Sea Trade Service Review, 3rd Quarter 1996. (WSTS). WSTS estimates of total seaborne iron ore imports, and those of individual Asian countries, are considerably smaller than those from other sources. I have not tried to reconcile these differences.
12. WSTS for Japan, Korea Maritime Institute, Shipping Statistical Yearbook 1996 (KMI: Seoul, 1996), for Korea.
13. OECD, p 3.
14. These are my own estimates, based on data in several sources: WSTS, OECD, and Drewry Shipping Consultants, Pacific Rim Trade and Shipping: The Powerhouse of World Shipping in the 21st Century (Drewry: London, 1993).
15. Drewry Shipping Consultants, SSE Market Briefing, April 1995, p 23. WSTS, III-54.
16. WSTS, III-60.
17. SS&Y Research Services Ltd, Weaker Oil Demand in Japan in 2nd Half 1995, December 1995.
18. Excluding South Asia.
19. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 1996.
20. TEU = 20-foot equivalent units, the standard measure of capacity on the supply side.
21. That is, the first container ship too large to pass through the Panamal canal.
22. Drewry Shipping Consultants, Post-Panamax Containerships: 6000 TEU and Beyond (Drewry: London, 1996).
23. United Nations ESCAP, Infrastructure Development as Key to Economic Growth and Regional Economic Cooperation (United Nations: NY, 1994).
24. ”Top 10 Private Operators" Port Development International, September 1996.