Outline
Problem

Self Test

LECTURE ON

MEASURING OUTPUT AND THE PRICE LEVEL



I. Introduction


 

 


 


 


 


5. Explain how real GDP is measured


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 




II. The Basic Circular Flow of Expenditure and Income


(Begg 20-3)



 


 


 


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The simplest circular flow model


A. The simplest case:


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

 


 


 


 


 


 


 

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A more complex circular flow model (adding financial markets)


 


 


 


3. Households engage in three actions.


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


4. Firms engage in five economic activities


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


***



 


 


 


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Aggregate income and expenditure



 


 


 


 


 


 


 



 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


2. This follows from the definition of profits


 


b. PROFITS = SALES - COSTS


 


Hence:


c. PROFIT + WAGES + INTEREST + RENT = AE


Hence:


d. AY = AE



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Gross Domestic Product

(B 20-4)


 


 


 


 


 


C + I = GDP = Y = AE = AY


 


 


 


III. Government, the Foreign Sector and the Circular Flow


 


1. It makes the model more complex


2. However AE = AY = GDP = Y still holds


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Government


 


 


 


 


 


 


AE = AE = GDP = Y = C + I + G


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 



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The Rest of the World


A. The rest of the world interacts in two markets


 


 


 


2. In the financial markets, foreigners


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 



III. Disposable Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Taxes


 


1. YD = AY - NT Hence, AY = YD + NT



 


1. YD = C + S


 


1. S = YD - C


 


 


 


 


2. Hence AY = YD + NT can be written


AY = C + S + NT



IV. Income and Expenditure Accounts


 


1. Firms' accounts:


a. Income = C + I + G + NX = AE


b. Expenses = WAGES + INTEREST + RENTS + PROFITS =

 

 

2. Households' accounts


a. Incomes = WAGES + INTEREST + RENTS + PROFITS = AY


b. Expenses = C + NT + S


 


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Injections and Leakages


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

 

 


 


 


 


 


 


D. If we dissaggregate net exports (NX), we get


 


E. Substitute in EQN. 1


 


F. Recall from households accounts


 


G. Hence


1. AY = C + S + NT = C + I + X - Z = AE


 


 


 


 


I. If Imports (Z) are added to both sides of the equation


1.(Injections) = I + G + X = S + NT + Z = (Leakages)


 


 


2. S, NT and Z are leakages


 


IV. The US National Income and Product Accounts


 


1. The expenditure approach


2. The factor incomes approach.


 


 


 


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The Expenditure approach


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


b. (e.g. a used bicycle)


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


2. The US makes no distinction between:


 


 


 


 


 


 


*************************************************************

The factor incomes approach


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


a. GDP at MP = GDP = Y


b. NDP at MP = NDP


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


i. Replacement of worn out capital (DEP)


 


 


 


 


 


 


a. NI = DELTA K


 


 


 


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Valuing the Output of Firms and Sectors


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


1. example of the producers of a loaf of bread


Price VA

Farmer 10 10

Miller 20 10

Baker 30 10

Grocer 40 10



 


 


 


 


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The Material Product System


 


 


 


 


 


 


 



 


 


(B of dong at 1982 Prices)


 


1984 155 + 56 = 211

 

1986 170 + 61 = 231

 

1988 190 + 62 = 252

 

1990 200 + 87 = 287

 


 


 


 


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Gross National Product


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


V. Price Level and Inflation


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


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The Consumer Price Index


 


 


 


 


 

(Cost of basket in base period)


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


b. entry of competitors


 


 


 


 


 


 


1. Good for year to year and month to month changes


 


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The Retail Price Index


(B 2-2)


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


*****************************************************************

(B 20-5)

The GDP deflator


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


a. GDP Deflator = Real GDP * 100

Nominal GDP


 


 


 


 


 


 


GDP GDP

 


1984 64.8 307 211.2

1985 131.1 587 223.2

1986 636.0 2,757 230.7

1987 3,099.0 12,929 239.7

1988 13,266.0 52,664 251.9

1989 25,557.8 93,963 272.0

1990 38,167.0 133,172 286.6

1991 69,959.0 232,422 301.0


(WB p. 235)


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Relative Prices and Inflation


 


1. RP = P1 / P2


 


 


 


 


VI. Real GDP, Aggregate Economic Activity and Economic Well-being


(B- 20-5)


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


(e.g. home repairs and expansion)


 

 


(e.g. making clothing)


 


 


(e.g. water treatment plants)


b. Damage to environment would not be deducted.


 


 


a. Leisure time is the opportunity cost of working


b. Not counted in GDP.


 


 


D. Real GDP does not take into account:


1. Inequality of distribution of income

 


 


 


 


 


 


c. Family solidarity


d. Freedom, human rights and participation


4. Size of the population


 


 


YPC = Income/ Population = Y / POP


 


 


 


 


 

70 million people


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


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Inferences about changes in welfare


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


VII. Summary of the lecture


The circular flow of expenditure and income


All economic decision makers-households, firms, governments, and the rest of the world-interact in the circular flow of income and expenditure. Households sell factors of production to firms and buy consumption goods and services from firms. Firms hire factors of production from households and pay incomes to households in exchange for factor services. Firms sell sell consumption goods and services to households and capital goods to other firms. Government collects taxes from households and firms, makes transfer payments under various social programs to households, and buys goods and services from firms. Foreigners buy buy goods and services from domestic firms and sell goods to them.


The flow of expenditures on final goods and services winds up as somebody's income. Therefore,


Aggregate income = Aggregate expenditure


Furthermore, expenditure on final goods and services is a method of valuing the output of the economy. Therefore,


GDP = Aggregate expenditure = Aggregate income


From the firms accounts we know that


Y = C + I + G + EX - IM


and from the household's accounts we know that


Y = C + S + T.


Combining these two equations, we obtain



I + G + EX = S + T + IM


This equation tells us that injections into the circular flow (left side) equal the leakages from the circular flow (right side).


U.S. National Income and Product Accounts


Because aggregate expenditure, aggregate income, and the value of output are equal, national income accountants can measure GDP using one of two approaches: the expenditures approach and the factor incomes approach.


The expenditure approach adds together consumption expenditure, investment, government purchases of goods and services, and net exports to arrive at an estimate of GDP.



The factor incomes approach adds the incomes paid to the various factors of production plus profits paid to the owners of firms. To use the factor incomes approach, it is necessary to make an adjustment from the factor cost value of GDP to the market price value by adding indirect taxes and subtracting subsidies. It is also necessary to add capital consumption in order to arrive at at GDP.


To value the output of a firm or sector in the economy, we measure value added. The use of value added avoids double counting.



Price level and inflation


There are two major price indexes that measure the price level and inflation: the Consumer Price Index and the GDP deflator.


The CPI measures the average level of prices of goods and services typically consumed by an urban family in the United States. The CPI is the ratio of the base period basket of commodities at current-period prices to the value of the same basket at base-period prices, multiplied by 100.


The GDP deflator is nominal GDP divided by real GDP, multiplied by 100. Nominal GDP is calculated by valuing current period quantities by current-period prices. Real GDP is calculated by valuing the quantities produced in the current period at the prices that prevailed in the base period.


In interpreting changes in prices, we need to distinguish between inflation and changes in relative prices. A relative price is the price of one good in terms of another goods. Relative prices are constantly changing. We cannot tell anything about the sources of inflation by studying which prices have changed most. Any relative price changes can occur with any rate of inflation.


Because relative prices are constantly changing and causing consumers to substitute less expensive items for more expensive items, because of the disappearance of some goods and the arrival of new goods, and because of quality changes, the CPI is an imperfect measure of the cost of living, especially when comparisons are made across a long time span.



Real GDP, Aggregate Economic Activity, and Economic Well-being


Real GDP is not a perfect measure of aggregate economic activity or of economic welfare. It excludes production in the underground economy, household production, environmental damage, and the contribution to economic welfare of equality and leisure.









Key concepts


1. Aggregate expenditure (AY)


2. Aggregate income (AY)


3. Benefits (B)


4. Capital stock (K)


5. Circular Flow of payments (Dong luan chuyen thanh toan)


6. Consumer Price Index (CPI)


7. Consumption expenditure (C)


8. Depreciation (DEP) (khau hao)


9. Direct taxes (Thue truc thu)



10. Disposable income (YD)


11. Double counting


12. Durable goods


13. Economic welfare


14. Expenditure approach


15. Exports (xuat khau )


16. Factor cost


17. Factor incomes approach


18. Final goods (Hang hoa cuoi cung)


19. GDP Deflator (He so giam phat GDP)


20. Government Spending on (Chi tieu cua chinh phu vao Goods and services (G) hang hoa va dich vu)


21. Gross investment (GI)


22. Gross Domestic Product (Y) (GDP)


23. Gross National Product (GNP) (GNP)


24. Gross National Product (GNP) (GNP theo gia thi truong)

at Market Prices


25. Gross National Product (GNP) (GNP theo chi phi cho yeu at Factor prices to san xuat)


26. Imports (nhap khau)


27. Indirect tax (TI) (Gian thu)


28. Injections (bom vao)


29. Intermediate goods (hang hoa trung gian)


30. Inventories


31. Investment (I)


32. Leakages (cac khoan ro ri)


33. Market price


34. National Income (thu nhap quoc dan)


35. National income accounting (hach toan thu nhap quoc dan)


36. National income accounting identity


37. Net domestic income at factor cost


38. Net domestic product (NDP) (NDP)


39. Net economic welfare (Phuc loi kinh te rong)


40. Net Excise taxes (TE)


41. Net exports (NX) (xuat khau rong)


42. Net investment (NI)


43. Net property income abroad (NPIA) (thu nhap tai san rong tu nuoc ngoi)


44. Nominal GDP (YN) (GDP danh ngia)


45. Nondurable goods


46. Per capita real GDP (GDP thuc te tinh theo dau ngoi)


47. Real GDP (Y) (GDP thuc te)


48. Relative price


49. Retail Price Index (RPI)


50. Saving (S)


51. Subsidy (SUB)


52. Transfer payments (TR) (Thanh toanh toan chuyen nhuong)


53. Underground economy


54. Value added (VA) (Gia tri gia tang)


Questions for Review


1. What are the components of Aggregate Expenditure (AE)?


2. What are the components of Aggregate Income (AY)?


3. Why does Aggregate Income (AY) equal Aggregate Expenditure (AE)?


4. In what way are government purchases of goods and services (G) different from transfer payments (or benefits) (B) ?


5. What are the injections to the circular flow of income?


6. What are the leakages from the circular flow of income?


7. Why do injections from the circular flow just equal leakages?


8. Why does total value added (VA) equal GDP (Y)?


9. What are the two main types of indexes used for measuring inflation?


10. How is the CPI calculated?


11. How is the RPI calculated?


12. How is the GDP deflator calculated?


13. What are the weaknesses of real GDP (Y) as a measure of welfare?

 

Questions for Discussion

Macroeconomics

October 7, 1994


Questions based on lecture 5


1. Would the Gross Domestic Product System of Accounting be as useful to economic planners as the system of Material Product Accounts?


2. Would the Gross Domestic Product System of Accounting be as useful to the makers of macroeconomic policy in Viet Nam as the system of Material Product Accounts?


3. Would we get a more accurate picture of the productivity of the economy of Viet Nam if we counted the total product of each firm and enterprise instead of counting only the "value added" by the firm or enterprise?


4. In some countries a significant portion of the total consumption comes from illegal sources. For the sake of accuracy and completeness should estimates of this consumption be included in the GDP figures of these countries?


5. Ba Phuong earned 50,000 dong selling vegetables at a market in Ha Noi and she put all that money under her bed, how much has she saved? Unfortunately, there was a fire in her house and the money was totally destroyed, how much has Ba Phuong saved?


6. Mr. Tam, a young man in Ho Chi Minh City, needed money. So he sold his bicycle to a friend for 220,000 dong. How much has Mr. Tam added to the GDP of Viet Nam by selling his bicycle?


7. The TRACIMEX Company in Ha Noi bought a Japanese Panasonic Video Cassette Recorder (VCR) for 2 million dong and sold it to Miss Ha for 3 million dong. How much has the TRACIMEX Company added to the GDP of Viet Nam by selling that VCR to Miss Ha?


8. The per capita real GDP of Singapore is reported to be 60 times higher than the real per capita GDP in Viet Nam. Does that

mean that people living in Singapore are 60 times happier than people living in Viet Nam?


9. Can one single price index measure the changes in the cost of living for all the people in Vietnam whether they live in the North or the South and whether they live in cities or in rural areas?


10. The economy of Viet Nam is growing rapidly, at about 8% per year, while the economy of the United States is growing at only about 3% per year. Why does that make it more difficult to measure changes in the price level in Viet Nam than in the United States?


Macroeconomics


October 7, 1994


Problem based on lecture 5


1. Last year, Middlebury, Vermont declared itself an independent nation and this year, for the first time, the new nation of Middlebury published its national accounts data. The report shows all the important data but the economists in Middlebury do not know how to calculate the important aggregates. Can you help them?


2. The data: (in U.S. dollars)


Material Production 60,000

Consumer expenditures 80,000

Subsidies 6,000

Rents 2,000

Net income from abroad -4,000

Government purchases 15,000

Indirect Taxes 2,000

Profits 18,000

Capital Consumption 6,000

Investment spending 12,000

Exports 30,000

Wages 70,000

Imports 35,000

Interest 10,000

Direct taxes 10,000

Services 42,000

Agriculture 30,000



3. Can you calculate the following Aggregates for Middlebury?


a. Gross Domestic Product ________________.


b. Gross National Product ________________.


c. Net Domestic Income at Factor Cost _______________.


d. Net Domestic

Product an Market Price _______________.


e. Disposable Income _________________.


f. Saving __________________.



4. The economy of Middlebury in 1993 was much smaller than the economy of Viet Nam. But were the relative sizes of the components of the GDP of Middlebury similar to the relative sizes of the components of the GDP of Viet Nam?